Dodgers prospect Andy Pages dropped in Baseball Prospectus’s latest farm system rankings, and there are questions about his future in the outfield.
Dodgers outfield prospect Andy Pages has light-tower power and a rifle for an arm, two qualities that saw him shoot up the prospect rankings over the last few years. The hope was that 2022 would be the next step in his progression toward the big leagues as he moved up to Double-A Tulsa after spending all of 2021 at High-A Great Lakes.
Unfortunately, that progress stalled out a little bit. After posting a 1.049 OPS in Rookie ball in 2019 and a .933 OPS in High-A in 2021, Pages stumbled to an .805 OPS for Tulsa last year. The power is still there — he had 58 extra-base hits, including 26 homers and 29 doubles — but his batting averaged dipped to .236 and took his OBP (.336) down with it.
Unfortunately, that’s not even the worst news. Pages began his minor-league career as a center-fielder, but he was already not long for the position in last year’s prospect rankings. A year ago, Baseball Prospectus said this about Pages in ranking him L.A.’s number-four prospect:
Pages is an average runner right now, but already doesn’t really have the foot speed for center, and will likely lose a half step or two in the coming years. He should be a perfectly adequate defender in right—with that flashy arm making runners think twice about going first-to-third—but a corner outfield outcome does mean he will have to make some refinements to the approach and swing decisions to be a solid regular.
This year, Pages has dropped down to number nine on BP’s Dodgers prospect list. Some of that is because of an influx of talent that includes Dalton Rushing (number six) and Nick Frasso (number eight), but he’s also been leapfrogged by Gavin Stone, Michael Busch, and Nick Nastrini.
Most notably, BP doesn’t sound optimistic about Pages’ defensive future.
Pages’ offensive profile was always going to be tested in Double-A, and the 2022 results were mixed. His extra-base hit rate fell a little bit, but he still smacked over 25 bombs with plenty of doubles, to boot. His K-rate was almost bang on the same, and while he hit a few more ground balls, he still has an elite flyball rate. However, staff reports on Pages questioned the strength of the swing decisions in Double-A and wondered whether he would stick in the outfield. He was an average runner on last year’s report, but he’s lost speed and gotten stiffer in his actions. If he’s a first baseman or designated hitter, merely 25+ bombs might not be enough given the offensive bar at those spots.
In one year, Pages has gone from “he won’t stick in center, but he hits well enough to play a corner” to “he might not stick in the outfield at all, and he probably doesn’t hit well enough to play first base or DH.”
Pages hit much better in the Arizona Fall League than he did at Double-A, and he’s still young (he turned 22 last month). So there’s time for him to turn things around, but that time is basically now.
