The projections systems have the Dodgers being more than 21 games worse than they were in 2022. That’s why they don’t play the game on paper.
The Dodgers won 111 games in 2022, a franchise record. Over the last six seasons, they’ve posted a .645 winning percentage, the equivalent of 104.5 wins over a 162-game season. Simply put, they’ve been the best team in baseball the last six years.
Los Angeles hasn’t done much this offseason, but have they gotten 21+ games worse? Some weird combination of ESPN and FanGraphs seems to think so. Bradford Doolittle ran simulations based on FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, and the results had L.A. winning 89.7 games in 2023.
Even Doolittle seemed a little dubious about his projections:
Steamer isn’t particularly excited about the additions of J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard, which plays into a rather surprising ranking for the Dodgers. Why surprising? At this point, I almost take it for granted that the Dodgers will end up ranked first in almost any kind of projection-based ranking that I do. What the forecasts can’t capture is the Dodgers’ uncanny ability to get acquired players to produce at a level a tier or two above what the numbers suggest. You know, players like Martinez and Syndergaard. And, for that matter, how will Cubs fans feel if, all of a sudden, the Dodgers turn Jason Heyward into a feared masher? Still, this doesn’t feel like it’s been a good offseason for L.A. The offseason, though, is only half over.
Here’s the thing about projections: They’re always conservative. Last year Ryan Pepiot had a 3.47 ERA, the 19th-best ERA on the Dodgers. Steamer has Brusdar Graterol leading the 2023 Dodgers with a … 3.47 ERA. Perhaps most egregious is Julio Urias’s projected 4.05 ERA, but Evan Phillips (3.56), Tony Gonsolin (4.39), and Noah Syndergaard (4.84) all seem high, too. Do we really believe every Dodgers pitcher will be worse in 2023 than almost every Dodgers pitcher was in 2022? I, for one, think that’s crazy.
In a way, it’s refreshing to finally be the team the projection systems disrespect. No one would be silly enough to call the Dodgers underdogs, but maybe a little bulletin-board material will be good for them.
